2016 2nd QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Jul 6, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

July 6, 2016 Dear Investor: It’s not often that a national market trades at a price below its liquidation value, but that’s Japan today. The yen’s appreciation in the wake of the Brexit—as investors sought safe haven currencies to replace the sickly pound—has sent Japanese stocks reeling to a level they rarely reach: a combined market capitalization which is less than their collective book value (otherwise known as shareholders equity), the...

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SPECIAL CLIENT UPDATE

Posted by on Jun 27, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

June 24, 2016 Dear Investor: The UK’s decision to leave the EU will roil markets today, especially as it reversed the conventional wisdom of the past few days. There’s no doubt this Brexit adds further grime to an already grim picture of a politics that rejects inclusion and globalism—headwinds that will challenge commerce and markets worldwide. Sobering news for politicians and citizens, and also for investors. But investors should no more...

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2016 1st QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Apr 6, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

April 6, 2016 Dear Investor: The incredible perils of trying to time the market are evident from RBS’s January 11, 2016 admonition to “sell everything! If you read the RBS note, they actually recommended hanging on to some investment grade bonds. Putting aside that irrelevant nuance, on the day of the RBS call, the Dow was at 16,346, almost at the year’s lows. Just three months later it stands at 17,603, nearly 8% above the point where they...

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2015 4th QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Jan 5, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

January 5, 2016 Dear Investor: 2015 was the year nothing worked, as recently reported in Bloomberg.com. Most bonds and stocks delivered negative returns. The relative winner, cash, went nowhere fast. Overseas indices were big losers compared to their domestic cousins, down anywhere from single digits to 33%. Our investments in energy, steel and emerging markets did poorly, underperforming most major indices. A young 2016 has provided little...

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2015 3rd QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Oct 5, 2015 in Quarterly Letters |

October 1, 2015 Dear Investor: Some call the recent market fall a correction, but the magnitude and duration of declines spell a global bear market. From their May peaks, the market declines to the lowest lows are as follows:   Dow Jones Industrials -14% S&P 500 -12% MSCI All World Index -15% Nikkei 225 -19% MSCI Europe -15% Shanghai Composite -43%   While the technical definition of a bear market is a 20% decline—and though...

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SPECIAL CLIENT UPDATE

Posted by on Sep 4, 2015 in Quarterly Letters |

August 22, 2015 Dear Investor: Markets have made another special update necessary. Losses have increased, with the Dow down over 10% from its high of 18,351. This counts as an official “correction” but the distinction is arbitrary–and the word is just a euphemism for a big decline. Many international markets are down 20% or more from their highs, which actually put them in bear markets—again by official (and unimportant) definition. It...

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