Posted by on Apr 4, 2019 in Quarterly Letters |

April 4, 2019   Dear Investor,   As the legendary money manager Peter Lynch used to say, “If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted ten minutes.” No one can predict the economy, the markets, or the direction of currencies. Only a charlatan would pretend to. Yet if you click on your financial news most days, that’s all anyone is trying to do. Pundits rarely invoke the...

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Posted by on Jan 7, 2019 in Quarterly Letters |

December 24, 2018   Dear Investor,   It’s not quite the end of the quarter, but given the recent month of carnage, I decided to send this update now. After the worst December in stocks since the Great Depression, the S&P 500 is down 18% from its highs of late September. The media won’t call it a bear market until the losses reach 20%, but there’s no question we are already in one. Over the past three months, emerging market stocks...

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Posted by on Oct 4, 2018 in Quarterly Letters |

October 4, 2018   Dear Investor,   The only stocks going up this year are U.S. stocks—on the back of Trump’s corporate tax cuts, which have increased earnings at domestic companies. But the effect of this tax break is already well baked into stock prices and U.S. stocks are now dangerously overvalued, trading at 18 times forward earnings and 25 times trailing earnings. Meanwhile, our higher weighting of international stocks, which...

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Posted by on Jul 2, 2018 in Quarterly Letters |

July 2, 2018   Dear Investor,   The words don’t look insidious: “My hope is that the Fed, under its new management, understands that more people working and faster economic growth do not cause inflation.” But they come from Larry Kudlow, who works for the White House as Director of the National Economic Council. This makes them dangerous words indeed. Traditionally, the White House has wisely abstained from bullying the Fed. As a...

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Posted by on Apr 4, 2018 in Quarterly Letters |

April 4, 2018   “[T]he passage of the present bill [to enact tariffs] would not only increase the cost of living but would react unfavorably on our foreign trade and do much to counteract the good-will among nations which other departments of the government have striven for through diplomatic channels and peace conferences.” — The New York Times   Dear Investor, To loosely paraphrase George Santayana, those who do not...

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Posted by on Jan 2, 2018 in Quarterly Letters |

January 2, 2018   Dear Investor: Given the astronomical gains last year, many clients have understandably asked if they should purchase some Bitcoin. I would say no. Not because it’s a mania, a novelty, or a fad—though it certainly might be all of those things. I would say no for the same reasons I advised against buying companies like Pets.com in 1999. Not because it has no value, but because the value cannot be determined. I have no idea...

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