Posted by on Apr 5, 2017 in Quarterly Letters |

April 5, 2017 “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”                                                                                                      –Warren Buffett Dear Investor: The contrarian warning above is the mantra of all value investors. It’s what kept us invested at Dow 6,500 in the depths of the financial crisis—and makes us wary at Dow 20,839 today. Just a year ago, markets were in turmoil....

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Posted by on Jan 5, 2017 in Quarterly Letters |

January 2, 2017 Dear Investor: After last year’s 12% gain in the S&P 500, investors should brace themselves for a more difficult time. Not only is that number higher than the 10% average annualized stock market return over the past century, it follows several good years. The Dow sits just under 20,000, having climbed from 6,547 on March 9, 2009—a sobering fact for the many who sold at the bottom and still sit on the sidelines waiting to get...

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Posted by on Oct 3, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

October 3, 2016 Dear Investor: This carnival of an election has most everyone worried, disillusioned or confused. At least with an actual carnival, the nausea induced by the roller coaster comes after some pleasing thrills and chills. No such fun here. An intuitive (and, at first blush, attractive) idea is to sidestep the stock market fallout of a possible Trump victory by selling everything and then buying back after November eighth. But (not...

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Posted by on Jul 6, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

July 6, 2016 Dear Investor: It’s not often that a national market trades at a price below its liquidation value, but that’s Japan today. The yen’s appreciation in the wake of the Brexit—as investors sought safe haven currencies to replace the sickly pound—has sent Japanese stocks reeling to a level they rarely reach: a combined market capitalization which is less than their collective book value (otherwise known as shareholders equity), the...

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Posted by on Jun 27, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

June 24, 2016 Dear Investor: The UK’s decision to leave the EU will roil markets today, especially as it reversed the conventional wisdom of the past few days. There’s no doubt this Brexit adds further grime to an already grim picture of a politics that rejects inclusion and globalism—headwinds that will challenge commerce and markets worldwide. Sobering news for politicians and citizens, and also for investors. But investors should no more...

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Posted by on Apr 6, 2016 in Quarterly Letters |

April 6, 2016 Dear Investor: The incredible perils of trying to time the market are evident from RBS’s January 11, 2016 admonition to “sell everything! If you read the RBS note, they actually recommended hanging on to some investment grade bonds. Putting aside that irrelevant nuance, on the day of the RBS call, the Dow was at 16,346, almost at the year’s lows. Just three months later it stands at 17,603, nearly 8% above the point where they...

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