2017 4th QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Jan 2, 2018 in Quarterly Letters |

January 2, 2018   Dear Investor: Given the astronomical gains last year, many clients have understandably asked if they should purchase some Bitcoin. I would say no. Not because it’s a mania, a novelty, or a fad—though it certainly might be all of those things. I would say no for the same reasons I advised against buying companies like Pets.com in 1999. Not because it has no value, but because the value cannot be determined. I have no idea...

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2017 3rd QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Oct 4, 2017 in Quarterly Letters |

October 10, 2017 Dear Investor: Famed investor Peter Lynch used to cite the “quiet facts”: the items you would read buried in the back pages, relinquished to a supporting role by the frenzy of breaking news. Today the world focuses on Trump, North Korea and hurricanes, all of which inhabit the front pages. There is no avoiding that loud reality. But the quiet facts still coexist, lonely and neglected, just waiting for value investors to pay...

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2017 2nd QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Jul 5, 2017 in Quarterly Letters |

June 30, 2017   Dear Investor: In the short term, markets react to nearly everything—or to nothing at all. In the long term, only one thing matters: the growth rate of earnings, relative to interest rates and the price paid. Traders, pundits and speculators waste their time trying to predict things like political machinations, macro themes and Federal Reserve policy. These things are unknowable. The investor, by contrast, buys good...

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2017 1st QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Apr 5, 2017 in Quarterly Letters |

April 5, 2017 “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”                                                                                                      –Warren Buffett Dear Investor: The contrarian warning above is the mantra of all value investors. It’s what kept us invested at Dow 6,500 in the depths of the financial crisis—and makes us wary at Dow 20,839 today. Just a year ago, markets were in turmoil....

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2016 4th QUARTER LETTER

Posted by on Jan 5, 2017 in Quarterly Letters |

January 2, 2017 Dear Investor: After last year’s 12% gain in the S&P 500, investors should brace themselves for a more difficult time. Not only is that number higher than the 10% average annualized stock market return over the past century, it follows several good years. The Dow sits just under 20,000, having climbed from 6,547 on March 9, 2009—a sobering fact for the many who sold at the bottom and still sit on the sidelines waiting to get...

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