Realistic Probabilities April 3, 2008 Dear Investor: The first quarter was the worst start to the market since 2001. The S&P was down 9.47%. From 2000 to 2002 the market was down a far greater amount, nearly 50%, but the concentration of the current declines during such a limited time has made the pain seem comparable. The crisis of confidence that felled Bear Stearns has led to predictions of another Great Depression. Such hyperbole means...